Wednesday, 10 September 2014

I am starting to feel pity for C&A Labour

It's not been a good week for Chatham & Aylesford Labour. 

First we had "clash of the campaign launches" on Saturday - with both parties officially launching their campaigns in adjoining Chatham car parks. As previously blogged, Tracey had a team of over 30 - including many new helpers and lots of young activists out with her for the first time. I am not sure how many attended the Labour launch as no photographs or report has been published on Labour's website, but if it was the same gaggle of Comrades who we saw huddled around a clipboard at 11.30am in Highgrove Road, then C&A Labour really are in dire straits. 

Then today the Election Forecast website (run by academics from the London School of Economics, University of East Anglia and Durham University), published detailed findings that in Chatham & Aylesford Labour's predicted vote share is 2% down on last time with Tracey Crouch's predicted majority unchanged at 14%. They also predicted that based on polling trends and recent election statistics, Labour's chances of gaining Chatham & Aylesford is, wait for it, 1%.

Could it get any more disheartening for the Comrades?  

Well actually, yes it could. If you drill down into the figures, it appears that Labour's chance of winning C&A is actually 0.6% - but they "rounded-up" the figure to 1%  It must be quite a blow when you realise that your 1% chance of success is only achieved due to a statistical adjustment

Could it get worse....  Actually, I suspect it soon will. More to follow. 


  1. About as much chance as the Tories winning Lewisham Deptford then.

    1. Yup! The only diference, Lewisham Deptford isn't on our target seat list!