Friday, 4 July 2014

How UKIP supporters vote when UKIP isn't an option.

There is a widely held view that UKIP supporters are disproportionately former Conservatives, particularly in the south.

Whilst this may have been true four years ago I don't believe this is not the case now, and in the Midlands and the North UKIP probably damage Labour.

The following table, however, is of interest. On 22 May we had a district election and a town council by-election in the same ward, with identical boundaries. UKIP contested the district seat but not the town council seat. Here is the result

So here we have 1,400 people voting, in the same place and at the same time, with and without a UKIP candidate to choose from. As you can see, the absence of the UKIP candidate results in Con +4% LD +5% and Lab +6%. 

Food for thought for those who think swinging to the hard right will 'bring home' the lost UKIP voters. 

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