Thursday, 30 April 2015

Lies, damn lies and statistics

I have always poured over statistics, in fact understanding numbers is vital to any Campaign Manager / Agent role, just as knowing where your party's strengths and weaknesses are is important for future strategy and success.

At every count I push our Counting Agents to conduct accurate ballot box sampling, with varying degrees of success. This year, to improve understanding of the process and to demonstrate the correct way to sample, I am organising a fake "count" with a real ballot box, replica ballot papers, count staff and all the paraphernalia of the big night.

I have also developed (with my friend and statistician, Dr John Hayward) a user-friendly spreadsheet which will allow 50 samples and will calculate both ward by ward and constituency-wide results (see below).

As always, happy to share my work with Conservative colleagues elsewhere - if you'd like to see/use the spreadsheet locally simply get in touch using the contact me option to the right of this blog. If we don't know each other personally please confirm where you are based and provide an official party / Association email address.

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